It looks like GBPJPY is coming back to its senses

I have been trading GBPJPY almost exclusively with the AME Cross Trader. However, recently I had to switch to another pair (EURCHF) because my favorite pair has been acting a little strange and throwing off my EA. But I ran some tests today and it looks like I might be able to put my EA back on GBPJPY. If you are interested, you can try the following parameters on a mini account with as little as $500, on the 4-hour GBPJPY chart...

• minTradeSize=0.1 (0.01 for standard account)
• scaleDivisor=100
• stopDollars=1000
• shortMaBars=36
• longMaBars=120
• stopBars=36
• useLimit=1
• limitPips=70
• useMM=1
• aggressiveMode=1
• slippage=10
• panicMode=0
• maxTotalLots=1000

Please note that "stopBars=36" represents a 6-day high/low on GBPJPY, which means huge potential drawdown. However, in my backtest, this combination produced 200% gains in 1 month.

WARNING: If you are not comfortable trading GBPJPY without an EA, then you had better not even try it with the AME Cross Trader. Without sufficient experience you will panic at the first sign of drawdown and drain your account in a matter of days. But if you have patience and can control your impulses, you can easily double your account and take out your initial deposit, eliminating all of your risk.

How can I tell if panic mode has been triggered?

If you run the optimizer on the AME Cross Trader, you are likely to find hundreds of combinations that end in profit. Unfortunately, many of those combinations never survived the whole time period of the backtest. Instead, they ended prematurely due to a "panic mode". So how do you tell which ones made it all the way through and which ones didn't? Here's how...

1. Sort the optimization results by profit.
2. Double-click the highest profit result to load those parameters into the tester.
3. Run a back-test and view the results.
4. If the very last trade is closed by the EA instead of by stop loss or limit, then panic mode was triggered. This is not 100% accurate but pretty close.

Sometimes panic mode is a good thing, though, so don't discard it altogether. If you find a combination that has alot of trades, high profit factor (2.0+) but reaches panic mode near the end of the time period, then this is a fantastic combination that will probably work for you for several months without reoptimization.

Can I run the EA on multiple charts?

Someone asked if the AME Cross Trader can be run on multiple charts at the same time. I'm posting the answer here because the information is valuable for everyone...

You can run the EA on several charts at the same time without problem. Just be aware that the "stopDollars" parameter applies to your "account" equity. So (for example) if you have 3 charts running the EA, and all the EA's have stopDollars=0.3, then ALL of your EA's will trigger panic mode when ANY combination of them produce a drawdown of 30%. I haven't played with that situation at all, so enter at your own risk :-)

What if my broker doesn't allow mini lots?

I had a customer ask about using the AME Cross Trader on an account that does not allow trade sizes smaller than 1 standard lot. After a little thought and some experimentation, I came to the conclusion that it can be done, but not with a starting balance of $500.

If for some reason you are in this situation, then a starting balance of at least $2000 is required. I would recommend $3000. Also, when you optimize, load the "ame-cross-trader-h4-standard-full.set" preset file (on H4) and change the following parameters...

• minTradeSize = 1
• scaleDivisor = 10000
• stopDollars = 0.33

I found a combination on EURUSD that (in backtest) turned $2000 into $11000 in 1 month before a panic mode stopped it from trading anymore, so there's definite potential there.

My favorite pair stopped working!

I have been running the AME Cross Trader exclusively on gbpjpy for a few months now on my live account. In fact, since about November 7, I pretty much stopped interfering with it and let it perform its magic without me. The only exception is when a trade goes against me but take-profit is already set, then I tend to add a position (same size with same take-profit) to increase profits.

I added a link to a statement that's updated periodically (in the My Other Sites section).

Anyway, about 2 weeks ago, gbpjpy changed it's behavior and cost me a small bundle. So I stopped trading it until it gets back to some level of predictability and started looking for a new pair to trade. I found about 4 pairs but the one that caught my eye was eurchf. That was a week ago. At the time I had about $1000 in my account, and so far it is working pretty well for me. Not as aggressive gains as gbpjpy, but nice and steady.

Here are the parameters I am using on eurchf for a mini account (important) that can be started with $500...

• minTradeSize = 0.1
• scaleDivisor = 100
• stopDollars = 1000
• shortMaBars = 16
• longMaBars = 28
• stopBars = 5
• useLimit = 1
• limitPips = 60
• useMM = 1
• aggressiveMode = 1
• slippage = 10
• panicMode = 0
• maxTotalLots = 1000

Also, if you look at my recent statement, you'll see that it has placed about 5 trades in the past week and increased my account by almost $300. Like I said, it's looking promising. But eurchf is brand new to me and I am still experimenting with it.

Finally, the AME Cross Trader is available!

I just released the AME Cross Trader as a downloadable product. Actually I created a store where there will be several products available. But right now the only thing you can buy is the AME Cross Trader. This is an evolved version of the EA I used in the Automated Trading Championship 2008. So far the response has been pretty good.

Can you say "Holy Cow"?

Someone posted a question in my comments on the ATC2008 web site...

"Hi Tony, If you were to run your EA on a MT4 Strategy Tester report right now dating from 1 Oct 2008 until today, and not stopping where your EA did (60K), where would it be today, profit wise, and profit ratio ?"

Well, I don't have the original EA anymore. It has evolved and become a little more advanced. So I did the next best thing. I ran the optimizer on the current version to find a combination that would do well from October 1 until today. And here's what it produced...


Click Image to View Report
INSANE profits, and the panic mode still activated, but this time it wasn't until October 24. You have to see the report for yourself. I couldn't believe it when I saw it.

Now understand this. This does not mean that if I had this new version of the EA in the contest, that I would have done so much better. Most likely, I would have used similar parameters to the original and the panic mode would have still activated in the first week. I just show this report so that you can see the potential of the AME Cross Trader.

What? No gap?

After a 600 pip drop in 2 hours (GBP/JPY) on friday, then a retracement part of the way back for the rest of the day, I would have expected to see a big gap for sunday open. There was none. I guess I should be glad since I had open trades friday. I generally try to be completely out of the market before closing on friday, but this time it was impossible. Anyway, I just thought the lack of a gap today was really weird.

Have you ever done good but wish you did better?

I can't complain about this setup, but I'm going to. The EA had placed a trade and sent me a text message to my phone. After a few hours it had set the take-profit, then the price went way against me. This was my opportunity to buy more. Remember I said before, when the EA sets a take-profit, it is correct about 85% of the time.

Anyway, when it got near bedtime I checked the trades and one was in profit but the other was losing. I could have just let the EA do its thing and left it alone. Instead I rationalized that tomorrow is friday (a short trading day) and I didn't want to leave any trades open when trading halted on friday. So I closed all trades for a net gain of 94 pips...


Not bad, right? I should have been ecstatic! But instead, when I woke up in the morning I discovered that my take-profit was indeed reached. If I had just left the EA alone, the net gain would have been 208 pips!

Of course there are worse things to complain about, but I think I'm just trying to make a point here. Whether you win big or win little, you have *WON*. Complaining about winning is just wrong. I made out like a fat rat and I'm complaining because I could have gotten fatter?