Tuesday, November 25, 2008

OK, the Cross Trader was right :-)

That trade yesterday earned me 147 pips, but look at how far it had retraced before coming back...



I was away from my computer most of the day after it placed that trade, so I wasn't able to interfere with it. I'm glad that was the case because I would have probably panicked and closed the trade with a 100 pip loss. Instead the price bounced back and earned me 147 pips!

Incidentally, I was able to check the price maybe 2 bars after it was opened and saw that a take-profit had been set. Once the Cross Trader sets a take-profit, there's about an 85% chance that that price will be reached (again). It was my one chance to close the trade and cut my losses. The price was only about 60 pips against me so I just decided to let the Cross Trader do its thing, going entirely on faith since I saw a take-profit was set. This trade was kind of nerve racking but paid off.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Has the Cross Trader lost it's mind?

I get a text message a little while ago from my EA. It seems that after placing only sell orders for the last month, it has decided to place a buy order. If you look at the GBPJPY 4hr, it would seem like there is a definite downtrend and we are in the middle of a retracement. Here is the 1hr chart, which emphasizes this "retracement".



However, if you look at the moving averages as I have placed them, it looks like a clear uptrend signal. This is what the Cross Trader based its decision on. I'm not sure I completely agree with this but I will at least let the current bar complete and see if I need to interfere or not. So far in the last few weeks it has turned $300 into over $1500 (with a little help from me), so I'm reluctant to go against it with that success rate. This trade could be the exception, though.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

The contest is going on without me. And yet...

Each passing day I am amazed at the fact that my EA stopped trading on October 10th, the 10th day of the contest, and yet I keep ending up in the top 10. If you don't know my story, my EA was set at such an aggressive setting, and the market was so wild the first week of the contest that the EA managed to turn $10000 into $81000 in the first week of trading. Since I could not interfere with the EA I had to put in a failsafe to keep it from draining my account. So here's a little background pertaining to this "panic mode".

I (mistakenly) figured that my EA would generate something like $90000 to $100000 by the end of december when the contest ended. I also knew that the EA would completely drain my account if I didn't change the way it trades. So what I essentially did was put in a $20000 "trailing stop" and called it "panic mode" because if this trailing stop was hit the EA would NEVER trade again. It was also configurable and I arbitrarily set it to 20000, thinking that in order for me to lose that much in a single trade I would have to have a bunch of equity and my trade sizes would be very large. I also assumed that if that were the case, it would be near the end of the contest and I needed to protect my gains at all cost. My assumptions were (mostly) wrong.

Here is what actually happened. The market went CRAZY on the first week of trading and my balance (not equity) was up to $81000 when my "trailing stop" hit and drained me of $20000. This was on day 10. The EA assumed it was near the end of the contest and quit trading altogether. Now the EA is sitting doing nothing with a balance of $61000, which at the time of this writing has me in 9th position. An amazing feat when you realize that it has been over a month since that last trade. Here is a chart of the trades that took place...



I was trading 0.1 lots for each $500 in the account. As my balance grew, my trade sizes grew. Here is the progression of trade sizes...
  • 2.0 lots: +71 pips
  • 2.2 lots: +116 pips
  • 2.7 lots: +68 pips
  • 3.0 lots: +110 pips
  • 3.6 lots: +97 pips
  • 4.2 lots: +211 pips
  • 6.0 lots: +155 pips
  • 5.0 lots: +213 pips (not sure what happened there. should have been about 7.9 lots)
  • 4.0 lots: +238 pips (another anomaly. should have been even more like 9.0 lots)
  • 5.0 lots: +281 pips (at least it's increasing lots again but should have been maybe 11 lots)
  • 6.0 lots: +63 pips (guessing it should have been maybe 13 lots by now)
  • 5.0 lots: +363 pips (noticing a pattern? smells like a bug to me)
  • 4.0 lots: -505 pips (WHAMMO! panic mode stops all trading)
Incidentally, if the EA had done the trade sizes like it was supposed to, I estimate it would have had nearly double the balance it had, and have been trading at least (I guess) 15 full lots by the time panic mode hit. That would have put me in first place even until now.

Now I'm not saying all this to brag. I know it was a fluke in the market that caused such unbelievable gains, even with a bug in my trade size calculation. I just want to point out what's possible in forex. Do you really need an EA that can run for the long term unattended? No. You can get by quite nicely by finding an EA that has explosive growth for a short time, then spend all of your energy learning how to spot the market conditions that your EA thrives in. Use the EA like a tool and know when you need to run it and when you need to keep it turned off.

There's another key element to trading successfully with an "explosive short term growth" EA, but you'll need to read the book to learn about that one. :-)

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Welcome to my blog!

My name is Tony Manso and I am wrote a book about Forex Trading. It is not an ordinary book, though. Most books will tell you all about fundamentals, technical analysis, blah blah blah. They are great books and teach valuable skills. They then proceed to tell you to start trading with a minimum of $50000 in your account. Most people when they see this, they put the book away and never start trading because they just don't have that kind of money. That's what happened to me.

My book, The Forex Millionaire Maker, assumes you did what I did after reading those other books. It assumes you have read those other books and have tried simulated trading with some level of success, but do not have a big pile of money to start trading with. My book teaches you how to start with as little as $500, and use that to build up your account so that you end up with $50000 or more to apply the stuff you learned in the other books!

Now I know what you're saying... "Tony, why don't I just keep doing what YOU taught me in your book? Why do I have to stop doing it your way and switch my method?". The answer is simple. RISK. My method is risky. Very risky. However, your total risk if you do it properly, is $500. Let me explain how that works...

Suppose you start with $500, and using my method, build your account up to $10000, then lose it all in a single news announcement. Did you lose $10000? NO. You lost $500, because that (and your time) was all that you invested in the first place. Is this starting to make sense? I am going to teach you how to use forex to repeatedly create "Explosive Short Term Growth". Then I will teach you how to use some of that for cash flow while building your account up to a size where you can play with the big boys and do it like they do. Two years from now, your friends will ask "How's it going?" and you'll say with a big smile on your face, "I lost $250000 this morning, and I'm taking my family on a Disney Cruise!". Only then will you understand why I chose to call myself (and my book) "The Forex Millionaire Maker".

So what are you waiting for? Go right now to The Forex Millionaire Maker Site and begin your journey on your way to wealth.





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